S: Hello everyone, I’m Stephanie Li. Welcome to CBN Friday Special.

J: Hi, I am Jenny.

S: Do you want some drink, Jenny？

J: Thanks, but I have just finished a bottle of Sprite. Stephanie, do you prefer Sprite or Coke?

S: Well I used to drink Coke more. But currently, I prefer Genki Forest sparkling water. And, peach flavour is my favourite. Have you heard Genki Forest is bringing out its new Coke-flavoured product soon?

J: Yes, I heard about that too. The new beverage is Genki Forest's attempt to upgrade sugar-free Coke. The product is placed in its sugar-free sparkling water series, which may indicate the firm's prudent approach to direct rivalry with the dominating global Coke brands, such as Coca-Cola and Pepsi. 

S: Genki Forest, a Chinese firm known for its low-sugar tea and sparkling water beverages, entered the sugar-free carbonated drinks market in 2016. Due to the increased health awareness among Chinese people, Genki Forest’s relatively healthier products that are “low calorie” and less sugary have successfully catered to a substantial target market in China. Its total sales from secondary dealers in 2021 amounted to 7.3 billion yuan, following years of high-speed growth. In 2022, Genki has set a sales return target of 10 billion yuan.

As for promoting strategies, Genki Forest cooperates with influential bloggers, KOLs and KOCs on Xiaohongshu and Douyin to reach a huge pool of potential customers. So far, the number of followers in Xiaohongshu and Taobao Genki Forest flagship stores has reached over 3.3 million and 3.35 million respectively.

J: Last month, Genki Forest unveiled its new Coke beverage Genki Cola, officially announcing that it has entered the sugar-free Coke market in a cautious attempt to break down the barriers of global giants Coca-Cola and Pepsi in China and take on them.

But it won’t be an easy job. Over the past few decades, Coca-cola and Pepsi in China have been firmly controlling the raw material supply chain and the sales market of coke. Almost all the newly-emerging domestic coke would be acquired or soon became insolvent. 

S: However, despite being sandwiched between the two giants, Genki Forest launched a charge toward them. After the self-owned material-supporting factories in Anhui and Guangdong Province were built and put into operation, the supply chain of Genki Forest has been completed, solving the problem that the supply of raw materials for coke production may be limited. Genki has also established a relatively stable and large customers base for it to debut a Coke product. 

In fact, Genki’s founder Tang Binsen made the decision to launch the offensive against the two giants back in 2016, who is a serial entrepreneur and also an investor himself, and the highly anticipated new Genki Coke is considered to be the brand’s next big hit that boosts growth in its flagship sparkling drink series. 

Speaking of which, Jenny, how much do you think the Genki Cola will cost?

J: Hmm…I’m not so sure, but I think Genki should be careful about setting the price. Coca-cola and Pepsi’s product price has long been adhering to a low price strategy. Such market barriers may pose threats to new enterers like Genki Forest. A bottle of the sparkling water from Genki Forest costs 6 yuan, while the price tag of Coca-Cola with the same specification is only about 3.5 yuan. So will consumers welcome a more expensive Cola drink just for a similar experience, and will they like the taste of the new Coke? And since selling more will finally reduce marginal cost of production, will the newcomer be able sell enough to make a profit, or at least stay afloat in the already crowed market?  

S: Former domestic cola challengers like Wahaha, Laoshan, and Tianfu have failed to make their names as the two international giants dominate the Chinese market. Take 2019 as an example, according to industry research data, in China's carbonated beverage market, Coca-Cola's market share was 59.5%, while Pepsi's took up 32.7%, making their combined industry concentration to be as high as 92.2%. That basically bars any brand from taking a slice of the market.

J: Right. In the second quarter of 2022, Coca-Cola reported revenue of over 11 billion dollars, up 12% from a year earlier. Will Genki Forest takes on a market share smoothly or Coca-Cola continue to merge with the new entrant? Let's wait and see who will win this "Coke War". That’s all for today. See you next time.

“元气可乐” 来了！

2022年7月22日，中国碳酸饮品公司元气森林正式对外透露，即将推出“元气可乐”产品，最快将于8月线上售卖，并进入部分线下渠道。消息一出，饮料市场被这款即将问世的国有可乐激起千层浪。

元气森林是何方神圣？2016年，主打“0糖0卡0脂”低热量概念的元气森林气泡水横空出世，一出场便直接对标行业巨头“可口可乐”。这种气泡水主打健康的产品理念和新潮的营销方式正中新消费群体Z世代下怀，迅速走红。

元气森林可乐的项目，由其联合创始人鹿角牵头。鹿角形容这款产品时说，这在元气内部也是历史上最纠结的一款产品，既要保证元气森林健康的元素，又要兼顾可乐的口味。产品如何保持竞争力是个难题，另一方面，这可能会引发饮料巨头的反击。“我们的体量和国际巨头相比，就相当于一个小指头，很容易被一巴掌摁死”，鹿角坦言。

最后，还是元气森林创始人唐彬森拍板，“既然用户有需求，与其扭扭捏捏，不如潇洒走一回。反正做可乐失败的也不止一个。”值得一提的是，唐彬森本身不仅是一位连续创业者，还是一位投资人，他创办的挑战者资本在2021年4月完成了10亿元人民币的新股权基金募集。

2019年后，元气森林总销售额突破1500万元；2021年元气森林营收约73亿元。到目前为止，小红书元气森林旗舰店粉丝量达到了330万+，元气森林淘宝官网旗舰店粉丝量达到了335万……元气森林始终坚持自己的“果味气泡水“等其他产品的发展路线。

2022年7月22日，元气森林对外透露即将推出由联合创始人鹿角亲自带队的，代号为“YYDS”的“元气可乐”产品。本次项目，试图打破行业巨头可口可乐的壁垒，打造“中国可乐”。

然而，打破壁垒谈何容易？过去几十年间，可口可乐和百事可乐两大饮料厂商在中国牢牢把控着“可乐”这一单品的绝对话语权。但元气森林首先针对供应链发起了冲锋。在安徽、广东等地的自建工厂建成投产后，元气森林的供应链已经基本完成，关键原料基本可以自给自足，解决了可乐原料供应可能会被限制的问题。再加上元气森林本身良好的消费市场情况，便有了足够的底气推出可乐味气泡水产品。

然而，这场冲锋引起的可能是一场“血战”。进入中国市场几十年来，可口可乐和百事可乐两大巨头一直立于不败之地，除了牢牢把控着供应链和销售渠道以外，其在产品价格上也一直坚持薄利多销的原则，这使得其建立起了很难被攻破的市场壁垒。一方面在生产环节，由于两乐庞大的市场销量，生产层面可以大幅扩张从而降低边际成本，使得每一瓶可乐的成本持续压低。新入局的元气可乐在一开始进入市场时很难达到同等规模，其在成本和定价上就无法与“两乐”竞争。

另一方面，在消费端，市面上元气森林的气泡水定价在6元左右，而可口可乐同样规格的可乐定价只在3.5元左右，价格几乎只有元气森林气泡水的二分之一。过去十几年的消费习惯几乎已经锚定了可乐的定价区间。因此，“元气可乐”在价格不占优势的情况下，要获得消费者的青睐绝非易事。

20世纪90年代以来，许多著名的国产老汽水或停产，或退出市场，碳酸饮料市场基本被“两乐”统治。以2019年为例，根据前瞻产业研究院的数据，在中国碳酸饮料市场，可口可乐的市场份额为59.5%，百事可乐为32.7%，行业集中度R2高达92.2%。其他汽水品牌想要出圈，难度不小。2022年第二季度，可口可乐公司营收113.25亿美元，同比增长12%。

这场“可乐之战”，究竟是元气森林攻城胜利，还是可口可乐继续合纵连横，市场将拭目以待。

Executive Editor: Sonia YU

Editor: LI Yanxia

Host: Stephanie LI

Writer: Stephanie LI, ZENG Libin

Sound Editor: ZENG Libin

Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Yuanni

Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.

Presented by SFC

编委:  于晓娜

策划、编辑：李艳霞 

播音：李莹亮

撰稿：李莹亮、曾丽镔

音频制作：曾丽镔

设计：郑文静、廖苑妮

21世纪经济报道海外部 制作

南方财经全媒体集团  出品