CBN Perspective丨The Hollywood collapse: How US' tariffs signal the end of an era

2025年04月25日 19:55 21世纪经济报道 21财经APP 李莹亮

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Hello! Welcome to this edition of CBN Perspective. I’m Stephanie Li.

In recent weeks, Hollywood has found itself at the epicenter of a crisis fueled by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.

The Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese imports—and Beijing’s countermeasures—have sent shockwaves through the American film industry, exposing vulnerabilities that threaten its global dominance. From soaring production costs to shrinking international markets, the signs of collapse are undeniable.

Tariffs can affect any imported good that may be used in filming, from equipment to props to costumes. Trump’s tariffs have directly targeted materials critical to filmmaking, such as lumber, steel, and textiles. These increases have forced studios to grapple with 30% hikes in paint costs and rising expenses for imported costumes and props. But the pain doesn’t stop there.

The ripple effects extend to advertising and distribution—a cornerstone of Hollywood’s revenue model. China’s decision to limit American film imports has sparked fears of declining IP licensing fees, a key source of income for studios.

Advertisers are already scaling back investments, with industry analysts slashing 2025 growth forecasts from 4.5% to 3.6%. The result? Film production in Los Angeles has plummeted by 28.9% year-over-year, with studio usage dropping to a six-year low.

Hollywood is and long has been intertwined with the global economy. More recently, the rise of streaming platforms investing heavily in international productions is reshaping the global cinematic landscape.

Amid geopolitical tensions, streaming giants like Netflix are aggressively expanding their international production portfolios. Netflix’s commitment to invest $1 billion in Mexican film and TV production over the next four years exemplifies this trend.

Such investments not only diversify content offerings but also reduce dependence on traditional Hollywood productions. This strategic pivot enables streaming platforms to cater to a global audience with localized content, potentially diminishing the dominance of American-centric narratives in the global market.

For decades, Hollywood relied on its ability to shape global narratives and dominate box offices worldwide. China’s burgeoning film market used to be a key revenue stream for Hollywood, with American studios eager to capitalize on the expanding Chinese audience base.

Yet today, its grip is slipping. In 2024, American films accounted for just 15.1% of China’s market share—a stark contrast to the days when blockbusters like “Avengers: Endgame” raked in 858 million domestically.

Meanwhile, Chinese productions like “Ne Zha 2” have shattered records, earning $2.09 billion domestically compared to Hollywood’s top-grossing film “Avatar" ($2.92 billion globally).

This shift isn’t just about numbers; it’s about cultural influence. If China turns away from American films, the ripple effects will devastate industries tied to IP and branding.

Already, Hollywood’s global market share has fallen from 60% a decade ago to 51%, with audiences in France, India, and beyond increasingly favoring local content.

Domestically, Hollywood faces its own demons. Streaming giants like Netflix and Disney+ have cannibalized theater attendance, with 73% of Americans now preferring home viewing. Ticket sales have plummeted from 12 billion in 2018 to a projected 7 billion in 2025.

Beyond the shrinking numbers, Hollywood has also grown conservative creatively, leaning too heavily on Marvel and other franchise fare. The visual spectacle remains, but viewers are experiencing aesthetic fatigue.

According to a China Film News report, original Hollywood productions accounted for just 18.6% of all US studio releases in 2024, a dramatic decline from 40.9% in 2000. In contrast, sequels, reboots, adaptations and spinoffs now account for 81.4%. This cost-efficient but creatively cautious model has dampened Chinese viewers' expectations for high-quality cinematic content.

The world’s tastes are shifting at the meantime. Japanese animation continues to draw steady crowds, while European and Southeast Asian films are gaining ground. This year's surprise hits, Italy's "There's Still Tomorrow" and Britain's "National Theatre Live: Prima Facie," have exceeded expectations. Thailand's "How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies" became a breakout sleeper last year.

But Hollywood's box office and creative slump is only part of the picture. Film accounts for a significant portion of the broader US services sector, where the US has traditionally maintained a trade surplus with China.

According to the US Department of Commerce, US service exports to China grew more than eightfold between 2001 and 2023, with the annual surplus peaking at nearly $40 billion. Film and other IP-driven content have long been a key part of that advantage.

The tariffs’ true cost lies beyond economics—they erode Hollywood’s role as a cultural ambassador. For years, American movies projected ideals of heroism and innovation, subtly promoting US values. Now, as films like “Godzilla vs. Kong” struggle to find audiences, the industry’s ability to shape global perceptions is waning.

A recent film agreement with Spain calls for deepening collaboration on co-productions, film festivals and mutual screenings, signaling that China is broadening its cultural partnerships.

The irony is stark: Washington's trade restrictions and tariff moves, designed to protect American industries, may end up crippling one of the country's most impactful exports -- its cultural influence.

The world is watching, and if Hollywood’s collapse teaches us anything, it’s that no empire, not even one built on celluloid dreams, is immune to the consequences of hubris.