CBN丨China's economy expected to improve amid supportive policies in H2: BOA report

2022年07月06日 20:29   21世纪经济报道 21财经APP   李莹亮
三分钟音频,中英文带你速览中国经济头条。

Hi everyone. I’m Stephanie LI.

大家好,我是主持人李莹亮。

Coming up on today’s program.

重点提要 

  • The Bank of China believes the Chinese economy will see improvements in the second half, while the world is facing further slow down and high inflation; 

  • China mulls releasing pork from state reserves.

Here’s what you need to know about China in the past 24 hours 

中国经济要闻

China's economy is expected to gradually overcome the negative impacts of the epidemic in the second half of this year, with economic indicators showing improvement amid a raft of supportive policies, according to a report by the Bank of China on Tuesday.

Noting that the "triple pressure" on China's economy continued to increase because of the impact of unexpected factors such as the geopolitical conflict and the new round of epidemic in the first half of 2022, the report said domestic demand will play a key role in stabilising the country's growth during the second half of the year. 

Despite the challenges, the country's employment has remained stable and the price rise has been kept within a moderate range, leaving more room for authorities to manoeuvre macro policies, according to the report. It added that China's economic fundamentals and potential for long-term growth remain unchanged.

In terms of the global economic outlook, the report believed that global economic growth will further slow down, inflation will remain high, and the risk of "stagflation" will continue to increase. The tightening of monetary policies in major economies will accelerate, driving the transformation of the global financial cycle. Geopolitical tensions and volatile international financial markets might continue to weigh on the economic outlook. 

In the aspect of the banking industry, the uncertainty of global banking business environment will increase, while China's macro economy remains generally positive, and the banking industry is operating steadily and growing in scale.

7月5日,中国银行研究院在北京发布《2022三季度经济金融展望报告》。《报告》回顾了2022年上半年全球和中国经济以及全球银行业运行情况,展望了2022年下半年经济金融形势以及全球银行业发展趋势。

关于全球经济金融形势,《报告》认为,2022年二季度,全球供给端和需求端均面临下行压力,工业生产、企业投资、居民消费、国际贸易增速放缓,经济增速明显回落,通胀水平全面上行。

展望三季度,全球经济增速将进一步放缓,通胀水平还将维持高位,“滞胀”风险持续加大。主要经济体货币政策加速收紧,带动全球金融周期转换,社会融资成本提高对经济的负面效应将更加凸显,国际金融市场将维持震荡走势。

关于中国经济金融形势,《报告》认为,2022年上半年,受俄乌冲突及其制裁措施、国内新一轮疫情等超预期因素冲击,中国经济面临的“三重压力”持续增大。

展望下半年,内需将替代外需成为稳定宏观经济大盘的关键,疫情对经济的冲击预计将进一步减弱,一系列稳经济政策逐步显效,经济有望逐季回升。

关于全球银行业发展形势,《报告》认为,2022年三季度,全球经济增速下滑,银行业经营环境的不确定性有所上升;中国宏观经济总体向好态势不改,银行业经营稳健,规模持续增长。

  • China is considering releasing pork from its central reserves and guiding local pork reserve releases to prevent sharp hikes in hog prices, according to the National Development and Reform Commission Tuesday. 

    发改委研究投放储备肉: 国家发改委微信公众号周二发布消息称,国家发展改革委价格司正研究启动投放中央猪肉储备,并指导地方适时联动投放储备,防范生猪价格过快上涨。

Update on COVID-19

疫情简报

  • Beijing on Wednesday requires residents to be inoculated with Covid jabs in order to enter places where people gather, such as cinemas and sports centres, and urged the elderly to get vaccinated. The new rules will take effect next Monday.

    北京进入聚集场所将须接种疫苗:6日下午,北京市召开新冠肺炎疫情防控工作新闻发布会,宣布北京市将实施系列疫情防控措施,包括进入人群聚集场所(线下培训机构、图书馆、博物馆、电影院、美术馆、文化馆、体育场馆、健身场所、演出娱乐场所、网吧等)的人员须接种疫苗,其他限流、预约场所优先安排已接种疫苗人员。出入老年大学等活动场所的老年人要尽快实现应接尽接。措施将于2022年7月11日起正式实施。

  • Shanghai will conduct a round of mass nucleic acid testing from Tuesday to Thursday in nine districts and parts of 3 other districts including the Pudong New Area, municipal authorities said on Tuesday, as the city has logged 11 fresh infections starting Sunday. 

    上海多区开展“3天2检”5日,上海市新冠肺炎疫情防控工作领导小组办公室发布消息,7月3日、4日,上海市连续报告多例本土阳性感染者,上海多个区域于7月5日至7月7日开展“3天2检”。自7月3日以来,上海2日内已累积新增11个新冠阳性病例。

  • Public entertainment venues in Xi’an, a historic city of 13 million in Shaanxi province, would shut their doors starting midnight Wednesday, local government announced yesterday. Restaurants will only offer takeaway services. Schools are to start the summer holiday early and universities will seal off their campuses. Xi’an has reported 18 cases since Saturday.

    西安进入7天临时管控:5日,西安市第76场新冠肺炎疫情防控工作新闻发布会表示,7月2日0时-7月4日24时,西安全市累计报告确诊病例18例。会议表示,7月6日0时起,全市公众娱乐休闲场所和人员聚集经营性场所将暂停营业1周。全市各餐饮单位暂停堂食1周,可提供外卖订餐服务。学校提前放假,高校实行封闭管理。

  • Anhui has taken a range of measures to guarantee daily supplies, as more than 60 supermarkets have been arranged to supply daily necessities to residents in the virus-hit Sixian, where 52 confirmed cases and 164 asymptomatic carriers were reported on Monday alone. 

    安徽泗县全力保障生活物资供应:近日,安徽省疫情出现反弹。为全力保障生活物资供应,泗县建立了“8+15+N”的保供体系。目前,8家大型商超和15家较大商超全部开启保供模式,小型生鲜商超已启用41个,基本形成覆盖城乡的保供网络。

Next on industry and company news

产业及公司新闻

  • The index tracking China's logistics market performance stood at 52.1 percent in June, climbing above the boom-bust of 50 percent for the first time after staying in the contraction zone for three months, according to the statistics of the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing on Monday. 

    6月中国物流活动回升:中国物流与采购联合会7月4日公布,6月份中国物流业景气指数为52.1%,较5月份回升2.8个百分点,重回50%以上的扩张区间。

  • Chinese electrical appliance retailer Suning.com refuted a report that a group of disgruntled suppliers have applied to a local court for the firm to be declared insolvent and its affairs to be wound up. Business continues as normal and is even improving, Suning said on its Weibo account today.

    苏宁否认破产传闻:7月6日早间,针对网传“苏宁易购破产清算”一事,苏宁易购通过微博发布声明称,该消息系谣言。苏宁易购目前经营一切正常,业务企稳向好。针对网上不实传闻和虚假信息,公司将依法追究法律责任,维护企业自身合法权益。

  • Chinese silicon-maker Tongwei expects to post a net profit of between 12 billion yuan to 12.5 billion yuan, according to a Monday exchange filing, citing bumper demand and expanded output. It surges as much as 321.5 percent of the profit in the first half, as a government drive to boost renewables’ share of the country’s energy mix drove prices skyward. 

    威半年业绩增3倍: 7月4日晚,通威股份公布上半年业绩预告,预计上半年归母净利润达120亿-125亿元,同比增长304.62%-321.48%。对于业绩大幅增长,通威股份表示,公司上半年高纯晶硅业务受益于下游需求的增长,叠加新产能顺利释放,实现量利大幅增长。

Switching gears to financial news

金融市场消息

  • China last year emerged as the world's second-largest green bond market amid the country's green transformation, with local companies attaching greater importance to such financial products, according to a report jointly released by international organisation Climate Bonds Initiative and China Central Depository& Clearing's research centre on Monday. Up to 68.2 billion dollars worth of green bonds were issued in China in 2021, next only to the United States.

    中国成为第二大绿色债券市场: 7月4日,由气候债券倡议组织(CBI)与中央国债登记结算有限责任公司中债研发中心联合编制的第六份中国绿色债券市场年度报告《中国绿色债券市场年度报告2021》正式发布。《报告》显示, 2021年中国在境内外市场发行贴标绿色债券1095亿美元,同比增长140%。其中,符合CBI绿色定义的发行量为682亿美元,同比增长186%,增量领先于其他主要市场。 

  • Defaulted Chinese developer Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. completed a debt restructuring with lender China Citic Bank Corp.,media reported today. As part of the rescue loans, 20 billion yuan was exchanged for debt in nine Kaisa projects. Citic Bank had to repackage the Kaisa project debt and entrust trust companies to hold the equity in the projects, sources said. Citic Bank has been a long-term creditor to Kaisa and helped bail out the company from a previous crisis. 

    佳兆业与中信完成债务重组:据媒体6日报道,中信银行与佳兆业集团控股有限公司日前已经完成债务重组。2022年4月以来,中信银行与佳兆业集团控股有限公司持续接洽,直到日前重组完成。 

Wrapping up with a quick look at the stock market

股市收盘情况

  • Chinese stocks dropped on Wednesday as the country continued to grapple with COVID-19 flare-ups, while energy shares tracked a sell-off in the global oil market. At the close, the benchmark Shanghai Composite slipped 1.45 percent and the Shenzhen Component declined 1.25 percent. The Hang Seng Index closed  1.22 percent lower while the TECH Index lost 1.23 percent. 

    周三A股震荡走低。截止收盘,沪指跌1.43%,深成指跌1.25%,创指跌0.79%。板块方面,半导体及元件、汽车零部件、服装家纺等涨幅居前,煤炭、油气开采、景点旅游等跌幅居前。港股恒生指数收跌1.22%,恒生科技指数收跌1.23%。

Biz Word of the Day

财经词汇划重点

  • Debt restructuring is a process used by companies, individuals, and even countries to avoid the risk of defaulting on their existing debts, such as by negotiating lower interest rates.

    债务重组,是指在不改变交易对手方的情况下,经债权人和债务人协定或法院裁定,就清偿债务的时间、金额或方式等重新达成协议的交易。

Executive Editor: Sonia YU

Editor: LI Yanxia

Host: Stephanie LI

Writer: Stephanie LI, JIA Yuxiao, ZENG Libin

Sound Editor: ZENG Libin

Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Yuanni

Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.

Presented by SFC

编委:  于晓娜

策划、编辑:李艳霞 

播音:李莹亮

撰稿:李莹亮、贾雨逍、曾丽镔

音频制作:曾丽镔

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