With the entry into the post-pandemic era and the roll-out of measures meant to boost consumption across the country, China's consumer market has recovered steadily, with the building of differentiated consumption scenarios and innovation of forward-looking products emerging as new engines of growth.
On Monday, the third China International Consumer Products Expo (CICPE), Asia's largest premium consumer products expo, kicked off in Hainan's capital city of Haikou, marking the beginning of a slew of trade expos this year that dovetail with China's unswerving commitment to opening-up.
The week-long event is the first major international expo held in China after Beijing reopened its borders. The southernmost island province of Hainan is China's largest special economic zone and is being transformed into a world-class free-trade hub and a global centre for tourism and consumption.
It is also being held on the fifth anniversary of the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port. The free-trade port, with an independent customs regime set to be in place by the end of 2025, is expected to be a game-changer for China's economy, and is set to form a crucial part of the dual circulation economic strategy that is a shift from China's decades-old export-oriented development model.
Across the exhibition hall, there's a palpable sense of "heat" everywhere, from the bustling booths that display French, Italian and other European luxury cars and yachts, watches, exquisite jewelry and the high-tech gadgets exhibited by US enterprises that have taken the limelight, to the flocks of consumers trying out honey, cubilose, and healthcare products presented in the pavilions of Southeast Asian economies.
All of these demonstrate the vigor of China's domestic consumption, as well as its accelerating upgrading trend.
The sizzling vibe is equally visible with foreign exhibitors, with many treasuring the expo as an opportunity to deepen their footprints in one of the world's largest consumer markets.
And there’s more to come. The Hainan expo will be followed by a slew of expos, including the Canton Fair in South China's Guangdong Province later in the week. The 133rd Canton Fair, the country's largest trade event that is scheduled to open with a grand ceremony on Friday, will see vendors and buyers from across the globe as it resumes all on-site activities this year. Buyers from 226 countries and regions have registered for both offline and online exhibitions.
Consumption, a critical driver to China's post-pandemic economic recovery, will be a vital bridge between domestic and international markets amid efforts to increase investment from multinational companies.
"China has been sharing its market opportunities with the world, and the role played by China's consumption in driving the global economy has become increasingly evident," Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said in a video speech to the opening ceremony of the expo on Monday.
"We will spare no effort to expand domestic demand, place the recovery and expansion of consumption as a topmost priority, and further give play to the role of consumption as a foundation for the economy," He said.
During the speech, he also extended an olive branch to multinational companies, encouraging them to scale up investment in China and grow together with the Chinese economy.
To reach the goal, China will roll out more robust measures and events to boost spending, increase incomes, while also creating new services and accommodating new consumer needs, He said.
This year, CICPE has set up an exhibition area of 120,000 square meters, 20% more than last year. The six-day expo has attracted more than 3,100 brands from over 60 countries and regions, with over 300 brands debuting new products. The expo is expected to attract over 50,000 purchasers and 300,000 visitors, while leaders from provincial governments, international organizations, and CEOs of Fortune Global 500 companies will also participate.
Among the vibrant foreign participants are an array of European premium brands, some of whom have joined the exhibition for the third consecutive year, such as French luxury group Kering, France-based beauty and cosmetics giant L'Oréal, Switzerland-based luxury groups Richemont and Swatch, and British luxury brand Burberry.
Italy, the guest of honor country at the third CICPE, has teamed up with Italian luxury industry association Altagamma Foundation, and brought 147 brands in sectors such as jewelry, clothes, glasses, motorbike and wine to the expo. Those companies together occupy an area of 1,800 square meters, double last year's.
Hope and challenge for consumption recovery
With the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, the Chinese economy looks set for a recovery in 2023 — even as global economic growth is projected to slow down amid tightened monetary policies in several advanced economies in response to high inflation.
Economic conditions in many less developed economies are also challenging. Fiscal balance sheets are stretched due to spending on anti-COVID-19 measures, steep rises in public debt, and headwinds from difficult external conditions. Against this backdrop, a stronger Chinese economy is not only beneficial to the country, but also supports global economic recovery.
China’s retail sales grew 3.5% in January and February, official data showed, after falling 1.8% in December. According to the 2023 Consumer Outlook released by NIQ, a global leader in consumer research and retail monitoring services, domestic catering and key operators have experienced a 6.8% growth in sales amounts since the start of 2023, indicating the huge potential of consumption.
Consumer confidence in China was also recovering, with 48% of Chinese consumers expecting family income to grow year-on-year in 2023.
However, most consumers remain cautious and highlight the "sense of safety", and consumers in different financial conditions vary in behaviors as they have different demands for "physical and mental health" and "financial security”, said the report.
China's consumer price index for March rose 0.7% year-on-year, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported Tuesday. The reading fell short of market expectations and continues to hover at the lowest levels since September 2021.
On top of that, as Chinese people’s appetite for investing and spending wanes amid a depressed real estate and capital market, deposits at 13 of China’s large banks increased by 12.4% last year from the year before, expanding at the fastest clip ever.
The 13 banks added 16.7 trillion yuan in customer deposits in 2022, bringing their total deposits to 150 trillion yuan, according to the financial reports released by six state-owned banks and seven listed commercial lenders.
The latest central bank data also show that China's new household deposits rose to 2.9 trillion yuan in March from 792.6 billion yuan in February, pushing the first-quarter savings to 9.9 trillion yuan - versus 17.8 trillion yuan in the whole of 2022.
Reviving consumer demand is key to recovery and growth in China. Pent-up demand from the past three years — when households cut spending during lockdowns — must be unleashed to stimulate new demand for goods and services. A complete revival of consumption might take time as households readjust to post-COVID-19 opening, and there's always the risk of further surges in infections. But a revival must be pursued nonetheless, as consumption is key to sustainable long-term economic growth in China.
Now signs of recovery may be emerging in China's luxury and consumer discretionary goods sectors. Bain & Company expects growth in China's luxury market will resume in 2023 after China recovers from the most-recent Covid-19 impacts after the market fell 10% in 2022, declining for the first time in five years.
Boston Consulting Group also said in a report on China's fashion industry that the market will continue growing in the next 10 years, particularly in terms of luxury spending.
It is believed that the luxury market will continue to grow in China, backed by the further expansion of the middle class and wealthy population and the continuous rise of their spending power, the report said, noting that the entire middle and emerging middle class in China will be larger than the entire population of the US.
Consumption accounted for 32.8% of China's GDP in 2022, down from 54.5% in 2021, and still well below the 80% for many developed countries, meaning a huge room for improvement.
China is now the world's second-largest economy with a burgeoning middle class. It is projected that 400 million people will be part of this group by 2025. This has led to an increase in consumer spending and demand for high-quality products and services, which means that a huge new market has been created, driving economic growth in the country and generating opportunities for foreign and local investors.
春日海南，繁花盛开，椰风阵阵，第三届中国国际消费品博览会正在海口举行。本届消博会以“共享开放机遇、共创美好生活”为主题，3300多个优质消费品牌集中参展，35个国家和地区的采购商到会采购，展现了中国消费市场的活力。这场聚焦消费精品的国家级展会，集中反映了当前市场对优质供给的巨大需求，在激发国内消费市场潜力的同时，也在为世界经济复苏提供动力。
商务部部长王文涛在开幕式上介绍，本届消博会有三大特色：一是消费主体更加突出，以展为媒助力消费恢复和升级。本届消博会是消费提振年系列活动的重要内容，将聚焦绿色消费、健康消费、智能消费、时尚消费等热点，举办一系列丰富多彩的促消费活动，推动参展商和采购商供需对接，激发市场活力，提振消费信心，促进消费升级和潜力释放。
二是导向更加鲜明。本届消博会汇聚了来自国内外的3100多个优质消费品牌，许多细分行业的国际头部品牌将首次参展，一大批国内精品和老字号将集中展示，300多个品牌的1000余款产品将进行首发首秀。这些引领消费升级趋势的新品、精品、优品进入市场，将进一步优化消费供给，丰富消费选择，更好满足广大消费者品质化、多样化的消费需求。
三是国际定位更加凸显。消博会汇聚国内外展商、客商，展示全球的消费品，是连接国内国际两个市场两种资源的重要纽带。
王文涛说，中国拥有超大规模市场和内需潜力，2022年社会消费品零售总额达到了44万亿元，消费品进口额达到了1.9万亿元。通过消博会，各国企业能够快速对接中国市场，共享中国发展机遇。消博会还设有2万平方米的国内展区，面向全球采购商消费者集中展示中国的消费精品，将推动更多的中国优质消费品走向市场。
海南自贸港建设“蓬勃兴起”
今年也正值海南自贸港建设五周年。2018年4月13日，党中央支持海南逐步探索、稳步推进中国特色自由贸易港建设，揭开了海南全面深化改革开放的新篇章。
五年来，海南自贸港政策制度体系逐步构建，以“零关税、低税率、简税制”和“贸易投资自由化便利化”为核心的180多项政策文件相继落地生效，“两个15%”所得税优惠政策、三张“零关税”清单有序实施，关键核心政策成效初显。
数据显示，五年来，海南自贸港实际使用外资年均增长63.5%，累计实际使用外资超过之前30年的总和，新设外商投资企业4798家，覆盖142个国家和地区，成为外商投资的新热土。
2020年6月1日正式发布的《海南自由贸易港建设总体方案》提出，放宽离岛免税购物额度至每年每人10万元，扩大免税商品种类。作为海南自贸港核心政策之一，离岛免税新政吸引了更多民众来海南购物消费，也让海南的旅游零售行业更加蓬勃发展。
2023年也是海南自由贸易港达到硬件封关条件、压力测试全面推进的关键之年。实现全岛封关运作后，海南自贸港与外界的联通将更加顺畅，大量商品将奔着“零关税”“低税率”等特殊税收政策蜂拥而至。海南省开放型经济研究院名誉院长赵晋平认为，消博会的举办就是对全岛封关运作的一次压力测试。
五年来，海南推动自贸港建设实现从“顺利开局”到 “蓬勃兴起”，而中国国际消费品博览会也成为海南建设中国特色自由贸易港中的重要一环。
本届消博会展览总面积达到12万平方米，较上届增加20%，呈现出更大规模、更优商品、更多配套活动、更高国际参与度的特点，成为连接国内国际两个市场两种资源的重要桥梁纽带。
行走于各展馆，不难发现，步入第三个年头的消博会愈加值得期待——国际头部企业更集聚、国内消费精品更优质、首发首展首秀更精彩、消费精品类别更丰富。以主宾国意大利为例，今年该国代表团共带来147个参展品牌，展览面积约1800平方米，两个指标均比上届增长1倍左右。
“意大利企业的积极参与展现了其对中国市场的强大信心。我们将持续为中国消费者提供高质量产品。”意大利外交与国际合作部副部长玛丽亚·特里波迪表示，意大利企业期待通过本届消博会分享中国市场红利。
提振消费成复苏关键
消博会的国际展区里，近1800个消费精品品牌争奇斗艳；国内展区里，全国各省市区及新疆生产建设兵团连续三年全部赴琼参展。可以预想，随着海南59国入境免签政策的恢复，必将有更多的外国政要嘉宾、全球头部企业CEO、境外参展商和采购商线下参会，真正凸显消博会“买全球、卖全球”的全球公共服务平台功能，助推境外消费回流和各国市场开放融通。
参展商们普遍认为，海南自贸港的“零关税”“低税率”等特殊税收政策和入境免签政策，搭建起了国际消费精品进入中国市场的桥梁，也降低了国际参展商品的运输成本，为众多国际“尖货”涌入中国市场提供了便利。
作为高端消费品牌进入海南的重要平台，消博会结束后会有越来越多的国内外消费精品品牌选择进入海南离岛免税市场，共享海南自贸港建设发展新机遇——近两年，连续参展消博会的50多家国际知名品牌和头部企业相继落地海南，走进中国市场。
数据显示，今年一季度，海南离岛免税店总销售额达203亿元，同比增长29%。免税购物已经成为吸引境外消费回流、推动消费扩容升级的重要业态。
消费是经济增长“主引擎”。消博会的火热，正是当下国内消费市场快速回暖的真实写照。今年以来，随着各地促消费等政策措施落地显效，餐饮旅游等接触型消费、服务消费回升明显。国家统计局数据显示，前2个月社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.5%。
“消费加快复苏将有效带动企业经营改善，推动供需两端回暖，为经济运行整体好转提供坚实支撑。”中国宏观经济研究院研究员王蕴说。
4月13日，全球领先的消费者研究与零售监测公司尼尔森IQ在消博会“全球消费论坛”发布的报告显示，随着中国疫情防控平稳转段，中国各地消费提振措施陆续出台，中国消费市场逐渐回暖，迈入复苏进程。
尼尔森IQ中国区董事总经理宋烨表示，2023年中国经济蓄势待发，政府多措并举大力提振消费信心，为消费复苏打下乐观的基调。
《2023年中国零售市场复苏展望》报告显示，2023年起，国内餐饮及重点企业销售额呈现6.8%的增长，现代渠道主要零售商春节期间快消品销售增长5.3%，体现出整体消费潜力巨大；中国消费者信心也在逐步回暖中，48%的中国消费者认为对比2022年，2023年家庭收入预期会更好。
但尼尔森IQ同时指出，多数消费者仍保持谨慎的消费态度，将“安全感”作为首要需求。尤其是近日随着3月份物价和金融数据相继出炉，“一冷一热”的数据引起市场困惑，有关“通缩”的讨论开始活跃。
国家统计局4月11日公布的数据显示，2023年3月CPI同比上涨0.7%，同比增速一年来首次跌破1%，并大幅偏离2-3%的黄金区间；PPI同比下降2.5%，同比增速已经连续6个月为负。
同日，央行发布金融统计数据，3月新增社融5.38万亿元，比上年同期多7079亿元，3月新增人民币贷款3.89万亿元，同比多增7497亿元，双双超出预期。
中国拥有超大规模市场，4亿多人的中等收入群体，消费扩容升级空间广阔。2021年，我国的最终消费占GDP比重为54.3%，远低于OECD经济体77.3%的平均值，也远低于72.0%的世界平均水平。不难看出，与世界主要经济体相比，我国消费占GDP比重仍然偏低，特别是居民消费支出比重偏低。
“2023年经济复苏的关键在于首先提振居民消费，带动企业减少库存和增加投资，进而拉动居民就业和收入水平，最终实现居民资产负债表的修复和再度扩大消费。”中国社科院金融研究所助理研究员曹婧表示。
事实上，一些行业的复苏已现端倪。贝恩咨询公司表示，2022年中国奢侈品市场下滑10%，为五年来首次下滑。不过该公司看好中国的复苏前景，称增长将在2023年复苏。
从LVMH开年的优异表现可以看出强劲复苏势头，LVMH一季度营收增速几乎是市场预期的两倍，当季在除日本外亚洲市场营收同比激增37%。主要业务中增长最迅猛的精品零售当季营收增长30%，其中港澳地区的免税店尤其受益于旅客逐步回归。
非必需消费也快速复苏，截至2022年12月31日，中国火锅连锁店海底捞的收入同比增长近80%。
周二，美国银行中国股票首席策略师Winnie Wu在接受媒体采访时指出，中国奢饰品消费强劲复苏、非必需消费良好复苏，房地产展现复苏迹象，但整体向好仍需要时间。
随着第三届消博会接近尾声，三年来首次重启线下的第133届广交会即将登场，展览面积也由过去118万平方米扩大到150万平方米，规模再创历史新高。据统计，本届广交会线下参展企业超3万家。
繁花四月，春意盎然。疫情防控平稳转段后，接连举办的各大国际性论坛和展会，也在持续释放出中国推进高水平对外开放的时代强音，也为世界各国共享中国市场机遇、共同推动世界经济复苏和增长提供了平台。
Executive Editor: Sonia YU
Editor: LI Yanxia
Host: Stephanie LI
Writer: Stephanie LI
Sound Editor: Stephanie LI
Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Yuanni
Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.
Presented by SFC
编委: 于晓娜
策划、编辑：李艳霞
播音：李莹亮
撰稿：李莹亮
音频制作：李莹亮
设计：郑文静、廖苑妮
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