As we have reached the midpoint of the summer season, which stretches from June 1 to Aug 31, the film market is experiencing a remarkable surge.
As of July 19, the total domestic box office for the summer season has already exceeded 9.3 billion yuan, surpassing the 9.14 billion yuan achieved throughout the entire summer of 2022.
The summer movie season is set to sizzle this year, as industry observers are expecting the summer box office to hit the 15-billion-yuan threshold.
China’s box office has staged a strong comeback this year, grossing 4.1 billion yuan in June, the second-highest ever after the 4.2 billion yuan racked up in June 2019, according to ticketing platform Maoyan, partly boosted by the Dragon Boat Festival when people were more opted to spend money.
The summer box office still has great potential, as the monthly ticket sales in July and August are generally higher than in June. China's film market, once affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, will rally in 2023, and take the lead in the world by 2025, according to a report released by global auditing and consultancy firm PwC on Thursday.
With the domestic film scheduling returning to normal and the continuous introduction of imported movies, the Chinese film market is expected to rebound this year.
This year’s summer box office will exceed 12 billion yuan, back above 10 billion yuan for the first time since 2019, ticket tracker Beacon Pro predicted.
The 2023’s box office is expected to gross 45 billion to 50 billion yuan, recovering to between 70 percent and 80 percent of the pre-pandemic level in 2019, according to Western Securities.
The most crowded summer film market
This summer is set to be the most competitive summer box office in recent years, with a record-high of 121 films from home and abroad throwing their hats in the ring, compared to 91 in the summer of 2022.
Chinese mystery drama "Lost in the Stars” is the highest-grossing movie so far this summer as it racked up 3.4 billion yuan, data from Maoyan showed. Chinese martial arts drama “Never Say” Never" and local animation hit “Chang An” ranked second and third.
“Never Say Never,” written and directed by local comedy favorite Wang Baoqiang (Lost in Thailand, Detective Chinatown), has brought in a healthy 1.8 billion yuan since its July 6 opening. “Chang An,” the latest release from pioneering Beijing-based animation studio Light Chaser, launched July 8 and has a current total of 800 million yuan.
Another Chinese animation “Oh My School” took fifth place in its opening weekend with a 175 million yuan. The picture is a body swap comedy involves a naughty pupil and a strict class teacher.
More Chinese productions, including the mythological film "Creation of The Gods I" and the comedy "Advancing of ZQ," are scheduled to be released later this month. The foreign blockbuster "Meg 2: The Trench" will also be available for Chinese cinema-goers this summer.
But Tom Cruise failed to do the seemingly impossible in China over the weekend: revive Hollywood’s former box office muscle at the world’s second-biggest theatrical movie market.
“Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” performed poorly its opening weekend in China, debuting in third place behind a pair of holdover Chinese hits with an opening score of 184 million yuan during the first week.
Maoyan forecasts the Hollywood blockbuster to finish its China run with just USD60 million, down from M:I 6’s USD181 million total in 2018 and M:I 5’s USD136.7 million haul in 2015, despite local reviews for Cruise’s latest turn as Ethan Hunt have been notably strong. The film scored 9.4 on Maoyan, 9.5 on Alibaba’s Tao Piao Piao and 7.9 on Douban.
China has resumed importing US movies at pre-pandemic levels in 2023, one of Beijing’s many moves intended to signal to the world that it is back open for business. In the first half of 2023, 24 US titles were released in Chinese cinemas, just two fewer than during the same stretch in 2019, according to Artisan Gateway.
However, despite Hollywood tentpoles resuming their flow into China at a healthy rate, total ticket sales for American movies clocked in at just USD592 million for the first six months of the year, a steep slide from the USD1.9 billion earned during the same stretch in 2019.
Overall, China’s theatrical market has staged a strong recovery recently. Total movie ticket revenue reached 26.27 billion yuan in the first six months of the year, down just 16 percent from 2019, a 52.9 percent increase compared to the same period in 2022, according to the China Film Administration.
Domestic films accounted for 75.9 percent of the total box office, earning 19.94 billion yuan. The number of moviegoers nationwide also increased by 51.8 percent from the previous year, reaching 604 million by the end of June.
Local Chinese movies, meanwhile — again evidenced this weekend by “Never Say Never” and “Chang An’s” strong holds — are doing bigger business than ever. In the first half, thanks to a booming Chinese New Year release season, total sales for Chinese titles surged to over 200 billion yuan, up 27 percent from the equivalent period in the year before the pandemic, according to media reports.
Additionally, the exemption of funds from box office revenue has led to intensive screenings of many films during the summer season, industry insiders noted.
On May 23, the Ministry of Finance and the China Film Administration jointly issued a notice on the phased exemption of special funds from May 1, 2023 to October 31, 2023 in order to support the development of the film industry, leading to an overall recovery in the consumer market.
Domestic studios see H1 profits surge
Listed companies in the film industry have also anticipate positive financial results. Six companies, including China Film and Focus Media Information Technology, have forecasted an increase in revenue for the first half of 2023, while five other companies, such as Wanda Film Holding Co and Hengdian Entertainment Co, expect a return to growth.
China Film, which produced 20 films that made 14.7 billion yuan in the first half, expects net profit to have skyrocketed by 1,287 percent to 1,783 percent to between 280 million and 380 million yuan in the six months ended June 30 from a year earlier, it said on July 13.
Wanda Cinema Line, a movie theater operator, sees first-half net profit at 380 million to 420 million yuan, with operating revenue up 35.6 percent to 39.7 percent to 6.7 billion to 6.9 billion yuan. It invested in the sci-fi flick “The Wandering Earth II,” which made the list of China’s top 10 highest-grossing films by earning over 4 billion yuan.
More and better-quality films in cinemas drove the industry’s recovery, with record box office takings during the Spring Festival, Labor Day, and Dragon Boat Festival holidays, Wanda Cinema said, adding that the film market is still strong and active.
Renowned film producer Hengdian World Studios also said it likely turned a year-earlier loss into a 105 million yuan to 120 million yuan profit in the first half, thanks to upticks in the firm’s screenings and content businesses.
Shanghai Film, China Television Media, and Alpha Group also indicated a return to profit in the period. Beijing Culture and Jinyi Cinemas are likely to have narrowed their losses.
“最热暑期档”强势归来！
眼下，2023年暑期档已过半（6月1日至8月31日），截至7月19日下午3时，档期总票房已突破93亿元，超过2022年暑期档的91.36亿元。与此同时，在接下来的一个多月时间里，仍有多部受到市场期待的国产大片待上映，2023年暑期档总票房破百亿元近在咫尺。
灯塔专业版数据显示，截至目前，《消失的她》《八角笼中》《长安三万里》分别以34亿元、16亿元、8亿元的票房成绩分列暑期档票房前三。
其中，动画电影《长安三万里》上映第9天逆袭登顶票房日冠，豆瓣评分由8.0分上涨至8.2分，是目前暑期档影片豆瓣评分最高分，预计影片后续还将有不错的票房长尾表现。
灯塔专业版数据显示，《长安三万里》已跻身国产动画影片票房总榜前十，目前排在第七。
如今，暑期档已成为中国内地电影市场与春节档、暑期档并列最热门的三大档期。作为电影市场的重要票房来源，暑期档曾在2018年、2019年接连创下票房突破170亿的成绩，而在过去三年，电影市场受疫情影响，票房分别为36.16亿元、73.81亿元和91.35亿元，回落明显。
在行业全面复苏之下，今年暑期档自然也备受市场期待。德邦证券研报指出，今年暑期档影片储备丰富、观影需求恢复，有望带动超预期表现。结合猫眼第三方媒体预测数据，2023年暑期档有望出现6部10亿以上票房大片，暑期档总票房有望突破140亿元。
而展望暑期档下半程，随着《封神第一部》《超能一家人》《热烈》《巨齿鲨：深渊》《孤注一掷》等国产影片纷纷接力入场，暑期档有望延续当前热度，再创佳绩。无论最终数字是多少，可以肯定的是，暑期档观众的观影热情若能被全面激活，将对电影市场持续向上打下坚实基础。
新片扎堆
据灯塔专业版数据显示，今年暑期档共计121部电影排定了档期，除了影片《追光》《红光》是重映外，119部影片均为首映。题材涵盖动画、冒险、剧情、儿童、纪录片、惊悚、科幻等多种题材，为暑期档的电影市场增添了丰富的色彩和多样的选择。
今年暑期档上半程，就已经有80多部新片入市。虽然六月份前半段市场表现相对冷清，《蜘蛛侠：纵横宇宙》《变形金刚：超能勇士崛起》《闪电侠》《疯狂元素城》等多部好莱坞大片冲击大荧幕，但市场表现平平。
然而，市场开始热起来是从6月21日开始，当天由韩延执导的《我爱你！》公映。次日，由朱一龙等主演的国产悬疑电影《消失的她》公映，票房瞬间被点燃。6月21日首映当天当，《消失的她》以点映票房3600万的成绩，超越一众进口片登顶当日票房榜。从这一天起，2023暑期档就成了国产电影的竞技场，并在很长一段时间里，成为《消失的她》的独秀舞台。而该片上映一个月，已经排在中国影史票房榜第14名，围绕该片展开的关于“两性关系”和“女性如何在婚姻中保护自己”等话题，一直没有断过。
在进入7月后，“黑马”阵营再添奇兵，首当其冲的便是王宝强自导自演的《八角笼中》，也是暑期档“正能量电影”的最好代表。虽然《八角笼中》定档的全国公映时间是7月6日，该片从6月22日起就开始了大规模点映，在点映阶段，就收获了4亿元票房，目前票房已超过15亿元。
影片根据大凉山“格斗孤儿”事件改编而成，讲述了一个叫向腾辉的退役格斗教练，带领山区的孩子们通过练习格斗冲出命运牢笼的故事。“生如野草，不屈不挠”的影片宣传语，让人热血沸腾。观众小烨这样评价该片：“整部电影有一份天然的淳朴，这是值得鼓励的稀缺题材，值得记录的沉默小人物，值得尊重的真心。”
追光动画出品的动画片《长安三万里》，让观众沉浸在唐诗的无穷魅力中。该片以高适和李白几十年的交往为主线，徐徐展开了从开元盛世到安史之乱的唐朝时代画卷，除了那些家喻户晓的大诗人外，48首经典唐诗的出现让观众充分感受到中华文化的美好。电影院里孩子们大声吟诵唐诗的画面，是继春节档《满江红》之后又一次独具特色的文化景观，让人感受到满满的文化自信。目前，该片猫眼的预测票房已超过14亿元，也是追光动画票房成绩最高的作品。
值得一提的是，由光线影业、彩条屋等5家公司出品的动画电影《茶啊二中》，自7月14日上映至今收获票房1.75亿元，豆瓣评分仅次于《长安三万里》，高达8.0分。《茶啊二中》通过一个女班主任和班上最差生的“身体互换”，讲述了一个师生逐渐互相理解、互相支持的动人故事，也让人收获满满的正能量。
今年国产片无论票房还是关注度都明显压过好莱坞电影，一些曾在市场上颇有影响力的好莱坞IP后继乏力：华纳/DC的年度重头戏《闪电侠》中国票房仅1.8亿元，迪士尼/皮克斯的动画片《疯狂元素城》票房1.1亿元，哈里森·福特老当益壮的经典冒险系列《夺宝奇兵5》只有2366万元。
7月14日，《碟中谍7：致命清算（上）》在内地上映，相比北美延后两天。作为近十年最受关注的谍战动作电影，《碟中谍7》口碑不俗，豆瓣开分8.2，烂番茄新鲜度高达99%。
然而，海内外的高口碑反馈却得不到高票房回报，内地上映首周票房仅1.84亿，预测票房持续走低，进口片在中国市场折戟沉沙，颠覆了大众对好莱坞动作大片的票房期待。
有影评人表示，从暑期档爆款电影的表现来看，国产片中传统文化元素和正能量元素就像是助燃剂，成功点燃了观众的观影热情，激发出他们心中的正义感和爱国主义情怀。观众对于国产电影的兴趣不断增加，说明国产电影的制作水准越来越高。
业绩预喜
2023年上半年，随着影视制作环境逐步回归正常，供给回暖且消费逐步复苏，多数影视类上市公司业绩基本面显著回暖。
截至7月21日，申万二级影视院线行业20家公司中，有12家已披露上半年业绩预告。其中，中国电影净利润大幅预增，同比增幅上限近18倍；万达电影、上海电影、横店影视等6家公司扭亏为盈，行业整体情况好转。
中国电影业绩“断层式”领涨行业，公司业绩预告显示，预计上半年归母净利润为2.8亿-3.8亿元，去年同期归母净利润仅为2018.57万元，同比增长1287.12%-1782.52%。累计实现票房146.71亿元，占同期国产影片票房总额的73.56%；公司主导或参与发行国产影片共234部，累计票房163.07亿元。两项数据表现均比去年同期亮眼。上半年票房破10亿的5部影片中，有4部为中国电影出品。其中，《流浪地球2》《满江红》《熊出没·伴我“熊芯”》取得春节档票房前三，《人生路不熟》获五一档票房冠军。
万达电影表现紧随其后。公司业绩预告显示，上半年预计实现归母净利润3.8亿元-4.2亿元，同比扭亏为盈；预计实现扣非净利润4亿元-4.5亿元，同比扭亏为盈；同时营业收入为67亿元-69亿元，较上年同期增长35.6%-39.7%。
公司将业绩扭亏归因于上半年电影行业全面回暖，表示上半年影视行业的内容供给和定档宣发常态化，上映影片整体质量较高，助力春节档、五一档、端午档创下佳绩，极大地提振了市场信心。
横店影视、上海电影等院线股上半年亦扭亏为盈。横店影视预计上半年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为1.05亿元—1.2亿元；上海电影预计上半年实现归母净利润5757万元-6908万元，同比上年增134.23%-141.07%。此外，还有中视传媒(600088)预计实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为3.04亿元，不过公司有2.8亿元来自参股公司海看股份IPO后所产生的非经常性损益，公司扣非后归母净利润为1853.27万元。
观影人次与上座率均稳步恢复，从各影视公司院线表现中也得以窥见。万达电影上半年实现国内影院票房36.5亿元（不含服务费，下同），同比增长 49.7%，恢复至2019年同期93.5%; 观影人次0.88亿，同比增长54.4%，恢复至2019年同期的96.4%。上海电影旗下联和院线累计实现票房19.8亿元，同比增长 80%，恢复至2021年同期的106%。金逸直营影院实现票房5.48亿元，观影人次1353.81万，同比增速双双超40%。
Executive Editor: Sonia YU
Editor: LI Yanxia
Host: Stephanie LI
Writer: Stephanie LI
Sound Editor: Stephanie LI
Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Yuanni
Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.
Presented by SFC
编委: 于晓娜
策划、编辑：李艳霞
播音：李莹亮
撰稿：李莹亮
音频制作：李莹亮
设计：郑文静、廖苑妮
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